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The Austrian Supply Chain Index

The COVID-19 pandemic, existing geopolitical conflicts and trade wars have exposed the vulnerability of supply chains to global and regional shocks. ASCII researchers have developed the Austrian Supply Chain Index (ASCPI) to better quantify and analyze supply bottlenecks that affect the Austrian economy.  

Methodologically, the ASCPI is based on the GSCPI (Global Supply Chain Index) of the Federal Reserve New York, with the difference that the ASCPI focuses on supply-side bottlenecks that are relevant for Austrian companies. 

To this end, it combines information from 10 different indicators (5 indicators from Austrian company surveys, 5 global transportation cost indicators) in order to present shortages affecting Austria in just one indicator. The result is a summary overview of the stress level that companies in this country currently face. The index is updated monthly. 

Data gaps are closed based on the Kalman filter (modeling as a state space model) with the help of additional auxiliary variables. This allows the ASCPI to be displayed back to 2006. Furthermore, the indicators are adjusted for demand (new orders). The purpose of this is to eliminate the economic component in the variables so that the indicators primarily represent supply chain pressure on the supply side. 

Line Chart 

The yellow and red areas in the chart allow a quick interpretation of the data. The yellow area marks the probability that 2/3 of the observations are below the shown limit. The red area is based on the one-sided 90% confidence interval, i.e. the probability that 10% of the index values are above this limit. 

Heat Map 

In the heat map, the values of individual indicators are shown. It is intended to facilitate the interpretation. interpretation. Indicator values that are likely to be among the 1/3 highest values of the indicator values are colored yellow. Red values are based on the one-sided 90% confidence interval, i.e. the probability that 10% of the indicator values are above this limit. 

Update 01/2026

At the beginning of January 2026, the ASCPI (Austrian Supply Chain Pressure Index) remains in the green zone with an index value of 0.59 points. It therefore continues to signal a low level of stress in the international supply chains of Austrian industrial companies. The increase in the ASCPI by 0.28 index points indicates a slightly higher risk of supply bottlenecks compared with the previous month and is mainly driven by the sub-indicators order backlogs, delivery times, and air freight prices. The overall still comparatively low level of the ASCPI is linked to the, despite recent stabilization, still below-average industrial business cycle in Austria and in its most important export markets. Geopolitical tensions and U.S. tariff policy are associated with trade policy risks. This contributes to uncertainty, which is dampening investment activity.

At the beginning of December 2025, the ASCPI (Austrian Supply Chain Pressure Index) remains in the green zone at an index value of 0.32 points. This continues to indicate a low level of stress in the international supply chains of Austrian industrial companies. The increase of the ASCPI by 0.95 index points suggests a slightly higher risk of supply bottlenecks compared to the previous month and is primarily due to rising individual indicators such as delivery times and air freight prices. The still comparatively low value of the ASCPI is also attributable to the continued below-average momentum of industrial activity in Austria and in key export countries, despite slight improvements. In addition, U.S. tariff policy remains short-term in orientation and fraught with risks. This contributes to ongoing uncertainty, which especially dampens investment dynamics.

At the beginning of November 2025, the ASCPI (Austrian Supply Chain Pressure Index) remains in the green zone with an index value of -0.63 points. This continues to signal a low level of stress in the international supply chains of Austrian industrial companies. The increase of the ASCPI by 0.24 index points indicates a similarly low risk of supply bottlenecks as in the previous month and is mainly due to the rise of the sub-indicator delivery times, which points to a slightly increased risk of supply chain disruptions. The still low ASCPI value is also attributable to the continued below-average dynamics of industrial activity in Austria and its main export countries. Despite the trade agreement concluded between the USA and the EU at the end of July, the US tariff announcement policy remains erratic and short-term oriented. This contributes to business uncertainty and has a dampening effect on investment activity.

At the beginning of October 2025, the ASCPI (Austrian Supply Chain Pressure Index) remains in the green zone with an index value of -0.93 points. This continues to signal a low level of stress in the international supply chains of Austrian industrial companies. The decline in the ASCPI by -0.17 index points indicates a similarly low risk of supply bottlenecks as in the previous month, and none of the individual indicators show an excessive risk. The continued low ASCPI value is likely due to the continued below-average momentum of industrial activity in Austria and in the most important export countries. The trade agreement concluded between the US and the EU at the end of July shows no economic momentum. The US’s tariff announcement policy remains erratic and short-term in nature, thus contributing to excessive business uncertainty and dampening investment activity.

At the beginning of September 2025, the ASCPI (Austrian Supply Chain Pressure Index) remains in the green zone with an index value of -0.75 points. This continues to signal a low level of stress in the international supply chains of Austrian industrial companies. The change in the ASCPI of -0.07 index points indicates a similarly low risk of supply bottlenecks as in the previous month. The slight reduction is mainly due to lower values for the individual indicators “delivery times” and “order backlogs.” The continued low ASCPI value is likely due to the still below-average momentum of industrial activity in Austria and its most important export countries, despite improved leading indicators. The erratic and short-term customs announcement policy of the US continues to increase uncertainty in the period under review, reduces investment incentives, and contributes to dampening industrial activity, despite the trade agreement concluded between the US and the EU at the end of July.

At the beginning of August 2025, the ASCPI (Austrian Supply Chain Pressure Index) remains in the green zone with an index value of -0.68 points. This continues to signal a low level of stress in the international supply chains of Austrian industrial companies. The change in the ASCPI of -0.29 index points indicates a low risk of supply bottlenecks compared to the previous month. This is mainly due to the slightly lower values of the individual indicators “delivery times” and “air freight prices Asia-EU.” The continued low ASCPI value is likely due to the continued sluggishness of industrial activity in Austria and its most important export countries, despite improved leading indicators. The erratic and short-term customs announcement policy of the US increases uncertainty in the period under review, reduces investment incentives, and contributes to dampening industrial activity. The impact of the trade agreement between the US and the EU concluded on July 27, 2025, on supply chain pressure is still unclear.

The ASCPI (Austrian Supply Chain Pressure Index) remains in the green zone at the beginning of July 2025 with an index value of -0.45 points. Despite a slight increase, the ASCPI continues to signal a low level of stress in the international supply chains of Austrian industrial companies. The increase in the ASCPI by 0.23 index points indicates a slightly higher risk of supply bottlenecks than in previous months and is mainly due to the slightly higher values of the individual indicators delivery times and order backlogs. The continued low value of the ASCPI is likely due to the continued low momentum of the industrial economy in Austria and the most important export countries, despite improved leading indicators. The continuing erratic and short-term oriented tariff announcement policy of the USA increases uncertainty, reduces investment incentives and contributes to the dampening of the industrial economy.

The ASCPI (Austrian Supply Chain Pressure Index) remains in the green zone at the beginning of June 2025 with an index value of -0.7 points. Despite the slight increase, the ASCPI thus signals a continued low level of stress in the international supply chains of Austrian industrial companies. The increase in the ASCPI by 0.84 index points indicates a slightly higher risk of supply bottlenecks than in previous months and is primarily due to the slight increases in the individual indicators of intermediate product stocks and order backlogs. The low value of the ASCPI is likely to be primarily due to the continued weak industrial economy in Austria and the most important export destinations despite the recent stabilization, which is also influenced by the uncertainties of the US tariff announcement policy.

“The ASCPI is showing the first tentative signs that the customs chaos is having an impact on companies’ inventories. The resilience of supply chains is therefore crucial in order not to nip a possible economic recovery in the bud”, says complexity scientist and ASCII Director Peter Klimek.

“Despite the numerous uncertainties, supply chains are currently stable. To prevent them coming under pressure again, trade disputes must not escalate any further”, says ASCII Deputy Director Klaus Friesenbichler.

The ASCPI (Austrian Supply Chain Pressure Index) remains in the green at the beginning of May 2025 with an index value of -1.54 points. The ASCPI thus signals a continued low level of stress in the international supply chains of Austrian industrial companies. The decline in the ASCPI by 0.59 index points indicates a lower risk of supply bottlenecks than in previous months and is mainly due to the slight declines in the individual indicators of primary product inventories, sea freight prices for bulk goods, air freight prices Asia-EU and material bottlenecks in the domestic industry. At present, none of the indicators included in the ASCPI show excessive values. The low value of the ASCPI is probably mainly due to the weak industrial economy in Austria and Europe, which is being further slowed down by the USA’s tariff announcement policy.

The ASCPI (Austrian Supply Chain Pressure Index) remains in the green zone at the beginning of April 2025 with an index value of -0.92 points. The ASCPI thus signals a low level of stress in the international supply chains of Austrian industrial companies. The decline in the ASCPI by 0.17 index points indicates a lower risk of supply bottlenecks than in previous months and is mainly due to the slight declines in the individual indicators air freight prices Asia-EU, container freight prices Asia-EU and material bottlenecks in the domestic industry. None of the indicators included in the ASCPI are currently showing excessive values. The low value of the ASCPI is probably mainly due to the continuing weak industrial economy in Austria and Europe.

The ASCPI (Austrian Supply Chain Pressure Index) was in the green zone at the beginning of March 2025 with an index value of -0.75 points. The ASCPI thus signals a low level of stress in the international supply chains of Austrian industrial companies. The decline in the ASCPI by 0.58 index points indicates a lower risk of supply bottlenecks than in previous months and is primarily due to the declines in the individual indicators air freight prices Asia-EU and delivery times. None of the indicators included in the ASCPI currently show excessive values. The current low value of the ASCPI is likely to be primarily due to the continuing weakness of the industrial economy.

With an index value of 1.06 points at the beginning of January 2025, the ASCPI (Austrian Supply Chain Pressure Index) continues to signal a slightly increased aggregated stress level in the international supply chains of Austrian industrial companies. The increase in the ASCPI by 0.26 index points signals a higher risk of supply bottlenecks than in previous months. The rise in the index is primarily due to higher air freight prices Asia-EU, while the individual indicators container prices Asia-EU and delivery times remain elevated. These three of the ten indicators included in the ASCPI show pressure on supply chains.

With an index value of 0.80 points at the beginning of December 2024, the ASCPI (Austrian Supply Chain Pressure Index) signals a slightly higher aggregated stress level in the international supply chains of Austrian industrial companies for the first time since March 2023. The increase in the ASCPI by around one index point indicates a higher risk of supply bottlenecks than in previous months. The individual indicators show an increase in Asia-EU air freight prices, Asia-EU container prices and delivery times. These three of the ten indicators included in the ASCPI show pressure on supply chains.

With an index value of -0.31 points in November 2024, the ASCPI (Austrian Supply Chain Pressure Index) continues to signal a low aggregated stress level in the international supply chains of Austrian industrial companies. The increase in the ASCPI by around 0.5 index points indicates a slightly higher risk than in previous months. The individual indicators show an easing of sea freight container prices between Asia and the EU states, but an increase in air freight prices Asia-EU. The delivery times indicator remains slightly above average. These two of the ten indicators included in the ASCPI show slightly above-average pressure on supply chains.