ASCII Strategic Expert Dialogue & Panel Discussion
Economic Dependencies in a Fragmenting World: Resilience, Competitiveness, and Europe’s Strategic Choices
Wednesday, 8 July 2026, 6 pm
Austrian National Bank / Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB), Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, 1090 Vienna
How can Europe reduce economic dependencies and strengthen its resilience while remaining open, competitive, and economically connected?
This question was at the centre of the joint expert dialogue hosted by the Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria (ASCII) and the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB).
The event brought together leading experts from economics, policymaking, and system science to discuss one of the defining challenges of our time: managing economic dependencies in an increasingly fragmented global economy. While supply networks often remain invisible when functioning smoothly, recent geopolitical tensions, technological competition, and climate-related disruptions have demonstrated how essential resilient supply chains are for industrial production, critical infrastructure, economic prosperity, and financial stability.
Participants explored how advances in supply-chain data, firm-level network mapping, and complexity-based modelling are transforming the way risks can be identified, measured, and managed. These new analytical capabilities make it possible to detect vulnerabilities earlier and strengthen resilience proactively rather than responding only after crises occur.
The discussion focused on Europe’s strategic options for reducing critical dependencies while preserving the benefits of an open economy. Particular attention was given to identifying concrete priorities for policymakers and businesses to enhance Europe’s long-term resilience, competitiveness, and economic security.
The event featured high-level speakers from European institutions and academia, providing interdisciplinary perspectives on Europe’s future in an increasingly complex global landscape.
Welcome remarks
Martin Kocher, Governor, Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Gabriel Felbermayr, President, Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria (ASCII)
Keynote 1 (Policy)
Román Arjona, Chief Economist, DG GROW
Impulse Statement (Science)
Agnes Kügler, Board Member at ASCII und Senior Economist at WIFO
Expert Panel Discussion
Martin Kocher
Román Arjona
Peter Klimek
Moderated discussion by Sonja Jöchtl, Complexity Science Hub.
The panel discussion was follwed by an audience Q&A session and a get together with drinks.
The public event was followed by an exclusive Speakers’ Dinner, to which ASCII Advisory and Board Members were invited.
The event attracted around 100 high-level representatives from government, business, and academia, including:
Georg Konetzky (BMWET), Michael Stern (BMWET), Harald Stranzl (Federal Ministry for European and International Affairs), Thomas Starlinger (former Austrian Military Representative to the EU and NATO), Peter Umundum, Deputy CEO of the Austrian Post, Franz Staberhofer (Vice President at ASCII & President at Verein Netzwerk Logistik), Gabriel Felbermayr (Direcor at WIFO & President at ASCII) joined the Advisory Board dinner.
Further attendees represented institutions including:
University of Oxford, Complexity Science Hub (CSH), Joanneum Research, Austrian Research Promotion Agency (FFG), University of Vienna, Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU Vienna), IES Vienna, KONTEXT Institute, Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs, Energy and Tourism (BMWET), Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB), Austrian Productivity Board, Austrian Federal Economic Chamber (WKÖ), Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), United Nations Global Compact, ICEP, Schoellerbank Invest, WH Digital Services, Roche, A1, TGW Logistics, Starlinger, GTC-Transport Company, Alstom, Beiersdorf, Bloomberg, Report Verlag, and Leadersnet.
Key Insights – Challenges
1. Intensifying global competition
Global competition is becoming increasingly state-driven. Industrial policy interventions have risen sharply, particularly in China and the United States, with governments pursuing strategic competitiveness, security of supply, and the green transition. Chinese industrial firms receive three to eight times more government support than companies in other major economies, strengthening China’s global market position.
2. China’s growing economic influence
China has become the dominant exporter in many strategic industries and controls key stages of production for clean energy technologies, including over 90% of solar manufacturing, around 50% of battery cell production, and 60–90% of rare earth processing. It also dominates the supply of critical raw materials such as gallium and bismuth, which are essential for semiconductors and advanced technologies. The acceleration of Chinese exports (“China Shock 2.0”) is increasing competitive pressure on European industry. Companies facing strong Chinese competition are 15 percentage points more likely to relocate production and 18 percentage points more likely to reduce manufacturing jobs by 2030.
3. Rising geopolitical and supply chain risks
Geopolitical tensions, trade conflicts, and increasing uncertainty are putting global supply chains under growing stress. Potential disruptions, such as a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, illustrate Europe’s continued exposure to concentrated suppliers and critical trade routes, particularly for energy and strategic inputs.
4. Shifting value chains require new resilience strategies
Global trade patterns and value chains are changing rapidly, making supply chain risks more complex and interconnected. Managing these risks requires greater visibility across multi-tier supply networks, a better understanding of indirect dependencies, and proactive resilience strategies rather than reactive crisis management.
Key Insights – Europe’s Strategic Choices
1. Smart industrial policy, not protectionism
Industrial policy can strengthen competitiveness, but it cannot replace market competition. The effectiveness of policy depends on its design, with competition remaining the key driver of innovation and long-term growth.
2. De-risking instead of decoupling
Europe should reduce critical dependencies without withdrawing from global trade. The focus should be on diversifying supply chains, strengthening partnerships with trusted countries (“open localism”), and maintaining an open economy.
3. Strengthening Europe’s competitiveness
Europe must remain attractive for businesses, investment, and innovation by protecting competition in product markets, competing successfully for capital and industrial locations, and regularly evaluating policy measures to ensure they remain effective.
4. European solutions and Austria’s role
Many strategic challenges require coordinated European action rather than isolated national responses. Austria should actively contribute to shaping European rules and policies instead of merely adapting to decisions made elsewhere.
Key takeaway: Europe’s future competitiveness will depend less on the ambition of industrial policy than on how well it is designed. Effective policy should reinforce competition, reduce strategic vulnerabilities, and strengthen resilience without undermining openness.
Why Supply Chain Intelligence & the ASCII matter
In an increasingly fragmented global economy, resilience cannot be built on assumptions – it must be built on evidence. As highlighted throughout the event, you can only design what you can measure. This is where the Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria (ASCII) and the Austrian Supply Chain Pressure Index (ASCPI) play a crucial role. By combining firm-level data, supply network mapping, and complexity science, ASCII makes hidden dependencies and systemic risks visible. This allows one product – for example, an EV battery – to be mapped across multiple interconnected value chains. Such insights enable businesses and policymakers to identify vulnerabilities early and make evidence-based decisions to strengthen Europe’s economic resilience.
