We review the current state of dependencies associated with the oil imports into Austria. Geopolitical tensions have dramatically increased the price of oil, making substitution more difficult and expensive. In three disruption scenarios for Austria’s oil imports, we estimate the availability of oil over time.

The three most important findings are:

1. 94% of Austria’s oil flows from the trans-alpine pipeline from Trieste, briefly halted in March by suspected sabotage of a power pylon feeding a pumping station.

2. Around 52% of Austria’s oil is imported from Kazakhstan, reaching Trieste via the CPC pipeline to Novorossiysk and then by tanker. Recent Ukrainian strikes hit the adjacent Russian terminal.

3. The current strategic oil reserves of Austria are sufficient for 100 days of normal operations, of which 70% is transportation.

Authors: Mitja Devetak 1, Kjartan van Driel 1,2, Peter Klimek 2,1, Stefan Thurner 1,2

1 Complexity Science Hub (CSH)
2 Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria (ASCII)