The 2025 US–China tariff war is impacting global container shipping, in particular through a collapse of US-China trade. In this report, we apply a novel agent-based model to simulate the global container trade and gain insight into the possible repercussions of a prolonged disruption to bilateral trade. Based on that, we estimate that the European Union, Japan, and Korea are more likely to absorb the extra container capacity with an increase in trade of around 1.5% each. 

We also simulate a ‘rebound’ phase in which demand for Chinese goods from US ports increases, driven by firms looking to replenish their inventories after relaxation of the tariffs. The rebound phase drives an 18.9% surge in total US traffic overall, with a sharp concentration at West Coast ports, likely leading to similar logistic bottlenecks as during the COVID-19 pandemic. The extra container capacity comes at the detriment of European, Japanese and Korean ports, which experience a small, but not negligible, decrease in trade.