Global crises show the vulnerability of supply chains, especially in Germany and Europe. Structural changes such as digitisation, decarbonisation and a focus on regional security are increasing the need for imported raw materials. Existing dependencies are deepening as a result, while declining competitiveness and geopolitical tensions are jeopardising the EU’s negotiating power. Building
resilient supply chains requires indepth policy measures and a better understanding of global dependencies. New research shows how existing data can be used to make supply chains more efficient and resilient and what kind of new data should be collected. The article provides recommendations for action for Germany and the EU.
In recent years, various crises – such as pandemics, chip shortages, trade route disruptions and conflicts – have highlighted the interdependencies within global value chains. These events have made it clear that seemingly isolated incidents can have a serious impact on global trade. At the same time, the risks are intensifying due to growing geopolitical tensions and the impending collapse of the rules-based international order, tariff threats and trade wars, digital and sustainable transformation and the increasing impact of climate change. Both companies and policy makers are increasingly recognizing the need to rethink the European Union’s dependence on global trade and to apply risk management strategies in EU supply chains. Various options for action exist at the corporate and macroeconomic level, but their success and feasibility depend on the availability of reliable and detailed data.
SUPPLY CHAINS UNDER PRESSURE: CURRENT VULNERABILITIES AND FUTURE RISKS
International trade now accounts for almost two thirds of global gross domestic product (GDP) (World Bank, 2025), and the European Union is no exception. While global trade has counteracted the local slowdown in economic growth in European economies, it has also increased dependency on trading partners. Germany in particular has consistently promoted international trade in order to strengthen its own economy. As the largest European trading partner (Eurostat, 2024), Germany has positioned itself as one of the most open economies and is therefore particularly affected by international developments. Germany stands out within the EU due to the importance of its industrial sector, but is dependent on imports in upstream industries (Menkhoff & Zeevaert, 2022). Key sectors include vehicle construction, electrical engineering and the chemical industry, all three of whose supply chains are subject to considerable risks due to their heavy dependence on imported primary products and fluctuating demand.
INCREASING PRESSURE ON VALUE CHAINS
The pressure on value chains will continue to increase. Firstly, current economic trends – such as digitalization, investments in national defence and the transition to a climate-resilient, carbon-neutral economy – are leading to increasing demand for raw materials and intermediate products that are produced outside the EU. For example, demand for lithium is forecast to increase by 230% by 2035 due to the growth of electromobility (IEA, 2023). As the EU is completely dependent on imports for lithium and rare earths, for example (Bähr et al., 2024), the question arises as to whether the supply of critical raw materials can meet the increasing demand. In view of this uncertainty, there is growing concern about possible bottlenecks in supply chains. The reasons for this are greater dependence on third countries and resources that are becoming increasingly strategic and thus more susceptible to geopolitical tensions. Secondly, increasing geopolitical tensions and the recent decline in European competitiveness are weakening the negotiating power of European markets (European Commission, 2024). Third, the transition to a low-carbon economy requires climate action, market changes and technological transformations. If these are not carefully implemented, this can lead to further disruption in supply chains and negative macroeconomic consequences (Stangl et al., 2024). Failure to implement effective climate change mitigation strategies would result in severe consequences related to global warming, which would further impede access to key resources, reduce productivity and increase economic damage and disruption (Bossut et al., 2024).
WHAT MAKES SUPPLY CHAINS RESILIENT
There are four levers that can be used at the corporate level to increase the resilience of supply chains: Robustness, agility, visibility and learning. All four require an improvement in the European data basis for supply chains.
POLITICAL RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ACTION
The resilience of supply chains is no longer just a corporate issue. Its economic, strategic and political importance is growing. Even though the importance of resilience has increased for many companies – especially during the COVID-19 pandemic – the concrete examples of implementation are rather limited. The reason for this is the cost pressure that causes companies to quickly prioritize traditional cost-cutting methods again after crises. This harbors considerable risks for overcoming future crises. The importance of institutional and political measures to significantly and above all structurally increase the resilience of supply chains is therefore growing. The following section discusses concrete recommendations for strengthening the resilience of supply chains that do not weaken Europe’s competitiveness and that do not involve bureaucratic overheads or data protection add-ons.
