On 12 June, the European Commission announced provisional countervailing tariffs of 21% on battery electric vehicles (BEVs) imported from China. 

This paper uses a large-scale trade model (KITE) to assess the impact of the tariffs, showing that while short-term effects may be larger, long-term effects are likely to be moderate. BEV imports from China are projected to fall by 42%, with limited impacts on EU car exports. 

This policy brief also analyzes potential retaliatory measures from China, including tariffs on EU pork exports, and highlights the need for careful negotiation to avoid escalation.