The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints for global trade. Roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments pass through this narrow waterway between Oman and Iran, making any disruption to transit through the strait a matter of worldwide economic concern. This brief examines two key dimensions of its disruption: global trade dependencies on Hormuz-dependent Gulf exporters, and shipping disruption scenarios simulated using an agent-based maritime transport model.

Our analysis finds that roughly USD 1.2 trillion in annual trade flows from five Gulf countries (Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain) could be affected by a prolonged closure. Energy products dominate these trade flows, with crude oil, liquefied natural gas, and refined petroleum products together accounting for nearly USD 800 billion. The shipping model reveals an important finding: while short disruptions of two weeks or less would likely have limited economic consequences, disruptions extending beyond four weeks generate disproportionately larger effects as cascading schedule delays accumulate across the global shipping network.

For the European Union, total exposure amounts to approximately USD 47 billion per year (2022-2023 average), with Italy representing the largest share at nearly USD 9.8 billion per year due to its reliance on Qatari LNG and propane. The United Kingdom imports approximately USD 13 billion per year. Austria’s direct exposure is minimal at USD 0.3 billion per year, though indirect energy price transmission through European markets warrants monitoring.