Risk Monitor 2024

A World of Disorder

The Risk Monitor by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Defence identifies and evaluates upcoming challenges at the global and European level, for the European Union, as well as risks specific to Austria. The aim of the Monitor is to inform about the general security situation and raise awareness of potential security risks.

Strategig Dependencies

Risks also arise from a lack of awareness of strategic dependencies. These are dependencies for products that are necessary to achieve Europe’s strategic goals, such as ecologically sustainable economic growth. These strategic dependencies include critical raw materials, i.e. those that are of great economic importance for the EU and Austria and at the same time have a high supply risk, such as cobalt, graphite, lithium, manganese, nickel or rare earth elements. A better understanding and monitoring of raw material supply chains is required in order to minimise supply risks.

Supply Risks

In terms of supply risks, ASCII Director Peter Klimek is highlighting the following key points:

  • It is extremely difficult to reliably predict the next major crisis. This makes it all the more necessary to understand and manage strategic dependencies in order to minimise risks.
  • Reducing supply risks requires a better understanding of how such risks are concentrated critical or strategic products for specific countries.
  • Europe’s ambitious goals with the Green Deal require a massive restructuring of existing value creation and production networks. This poses major challenges for the competitiveness of Austrian companies and regions.
  • New strategic dependencies in terms of raw materials cannot be avoided. However, there is an opportunity to make these “smarter” and more diversified from the outset in order to become more resilient overall.

NEWS

Our annual Advisory Board meeting took place last week, where we were able to discuss welcome input for the future direction of ASCII. Society at large is at an inflection point: Not only do we have wars on our doorstep, but we also have to meet the challenges of the green transition. As a result, the export-led economic growth model of recent years is increasingly unraveling.
The European Union is imposing provisional countervailing duties of 21% on battery electric vehicles (BEVs) imported from China from July 4, 2024. This move follows an investigation that found evidence of WTO-inconsistent subsidies for Chinese BEVs. Imports of Chinese vehicles could fall significantly, but prices for electric cars are unlikely to change much in the long term.
On September 16, ASCII is launching a new format to make the exciting world of supply chain research accessible to interested parties outside of science and politics: the ASCII Nachtcafé. This is a series of events in which current topics can be discussed informally over snacks and drinks.